11 Jan 2015

Geo-politics, EU, rates, 2015 ...


The external environment does not look great, especially on the Russian front and in the Middle East. On the other hand, geo-politics and market share manoeuvring will probably keep the oil price down. In the east, China looks like providing a positive policy environment, while Japan is bent on heavy monetary stimulus. The European Union seems headed in the same direction even if the US and UK may end up increasing rates, slightly, as the year progresses. On balance though, markets seem to get more momentum from monetary action, so liquidity should remain supportive for most of 2015. It is probably worth listening to those strategists recommending a strong overweight position in India, even if other emerging markets are not that favoured.

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