21 Nov 2016

Investors betting on 'Trumpenomics'

Global investors seem to be betting on the US economy moving into a higher gear under 'Trumpenomics', driving the dollar ever higher and holding US equities near historic peaks. The great sucking sound is liquidity being pulled out of other markets. India had a fourth week of declines as investors struggled to get to grips with the great currency reform. The Nifty gave up 218 points to close 2.6% lower at 8074 after trading in a range of 3%. Daily trading volumes stayed at recent elevated levels, averaging $4.3bn with heavy selling of $884mil by foreign portfolio investors while domestic institutions absorbed $590mil in net cash equity purchases. Volatility was fairly resilient as the India VIX traded mostly in the high teens, with one spike to 21 before settling back to 18, for a gain of one point on the week. Selling was across the board with some concentration in stocks perceived as most exposed to cash transactions, such as consumer discretionary and real estate. Nifty futures closed at a premium of just under 1% to cash, reflecting uncertainty over the enduring effects of the currency reform.

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