2 Jan 2017

Continuing overhang of uncertainty

We go into 2017 with a continuing overhang of uncertainty. Expectations as to the impact of Trumpenomics on global markets are a major concern, as are the implications for global trade policies. In India, the overhang of demonetization may be much less enduring. The pace of production of new notes suggests that a major turning point may come after about mid-January. Whether is leads to a hockey-stick recovery in consumer demand is not certain. At the last minute banks have started to announce sharp interest rate reductions for loans as the attempt to recycle the exceptional liquidity accumulated during demonetization. The Indian government is hopeful that this will help boost consumer demand as well as private sector investment, as it accelerates public sector investment.

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